Deep thought: To Rifleman Dread or nought...


I may not always blog about 40k, but when I do, I prefer Dreadnoughts.  I can't help it, I love these big scary machines of doom and destruction.  At one time, not too long ago, I was a purist, I would never take a dreadnought without a big fat close combat to punch face in with.  As time goes on though, things change, and now that normal dreads only ever get 2 attacks, I've come to see them as tanks with feet. There is a lot of hype around the rifleman dreadnought, so I thought I'd crunch the numbers and really take a look at the odds, why did it seem that everyone was so obsessed with these Forgeworld oddities?

Average # of Penetrating Hits by weapon
Weapon Name AV10 AV11 AV12 AV13 AV14
Assault Cannon .88 .44 .44 .29 .14
Twin-linked Autocannon .88 .59 .29 0 0
Twin-linked Lascannon .74 .59 .44 .29 .14
Missile Launcher .44 .33 .22 .11 0

  So with those numbers crunched, what are the combined odds of penetrating vs various armors?

Average # of Penetrating hits by combo
Weapon Combo AV10 AV11 AV12 AV13 AV14
Double Autocannon 1.77 1.58 .59 0 0
Twin-Lascannon and Missile Launcher 1.18 .92 .66 .40 .14
Assault Cannon and Missile Launcher 1.33 .77 .66 .40 .14

  Maybe somewhat predictably, but the Twin-linked Autocannon is definitely the champion in the AV10/11 department, but once they get t0 AV12, they're losing out to the more generic combinations, and obviously over AV12, they have no chance to penetrate at all. If you're facing down a lot of leafblower lists, the Autocannons may leave something to be desired when compared to the TLLC/ML, but if Razorbacks are your bane, then you'll definitely be wanting those Autocannons.

Sadly, this doesn't really make my decision any easier for fitting my 3 heavy-support dreads, but it's nice to see the numbers laid out in front of me.