Math Hammer - WHFB Charge Distance


One of the most drastic changes in 8th edition to WHFB was the change to charge distances.  Previously, it had been double your movement, so a unit that had M4 would charge 8".  With the new edition, charging is now from 6" to 16" with M4, so how do you know if you should charge or not? Basically, when you're declaring a charge, you must do a cost-benefit analysis of the situation.  Basically, if you are going for a long charge, is it worth the risk of failing?  This can only be determined by a good general, but with some practice and knowledge of the numbers, you will be able to form an educated decision.

Here are the raw numbers for you to look at:

Odds of Succeeding a charge:
Charge Distance Normal Swiftstride
M+3" 97% 99.5%
M+4" 92% 98%
M+5" 83% 95%
M+6" 72% 90%
M+7" 58% 80%
M+8" 42% 68%
M+9" 28% 52%
M+10" 17% 36%
M+11" 8% 20%
M+12" 3% 7%

With pre-measuring charges allowed in 8e, you can now get a very clear guess on your chances of succeeding a charge. For example, if you have a unit of Empire Halberdiers charging an enemy that is 13" away, you know that you have a 28% chance to succeed. Not the greatest odds in the world, but you may determine that even a failed charge would not put you in the open without support, but denying the enemy their charge bonus may be worth the risk, especially if they're cavalry or chariots.

It's always good to have an idea of what the chances of success are when you're playing with a game of dice. Nothing is guaranteed (except charging M+2"), but at least you have an idea of what to expect.